CHANCES

 

“Chances” refer to situations where a team’s goal-scoring potential materializes. These situations include moments that are considered “dangerous” statistically or technically, even if they do not result in a goal.
In football, the concept of a “chance” extends far beyond a mere shot on goal or an approach into the penalty area. For coaching staff, a “chance” is a tactical data point encompassing all situations—whether orchestrated or improvised—that materialize into a concrete goal-scoring opportunity. In this article, we delve into ten distinct types of “chances” frequently in the analysis room. Each represents a different phase or structural interpretation of the game.
1) Clear-Cut Chances
Let’s begin with the match-defining "clear-cut chances." These scenarios present an obvious and high-probability opportunity to score—often typified by a one-on-one with the goalkeeper. In such moments, defensive pressure is minimal, body orientation and ball control are favorable, and the shooting angle is optimal. Unsurprisingly, these moments often carry high xG values in analytical models. Their frequency and conversion rate directly reflect the efficiency of a team’s attacking patterns.
2) Half-Chances
Let’s begin with the match-defining "clear-cut chances." These scenarios present an obvious and high-probability opportunity to score—often typified by a one-on-one with the goalkeeper. In such moments, defensive pressure is minimal, body orientation and ball control are favorable, and the shooting angle is optimal. Unsurprisingly, these moments often carry high xG values in analytical models. Their frequency and conversion rate directly reflect the efficiency of a team’s attacking patterns.
3) Set-Piece Chances
Chances can also emerge from set pieces. "Set-piece chances" arise from dead-ball situations like corners, free kicks, or even long throw-ins. Their effectiveness hinges less on player profiles and more on rehearsed routines—near-post runs, decoy movements, and second-ball structures. In modern football, these scenarios are meticulously planned, transforming static restarts into multi-layered goal threats rather than random hopeful deliveries.
4) Second-Ball Chances
Closely linked to this are "second-ball chances." These occur when the initial delivery is not controlled but the ball rebounds in or around the penalty area, leading to a renewed attacking opportunity. These moments are especially vital for teams employing gegenpressing principles, as they rely on collective reactions and rapid surrounding pressure to capitalize on disorganized defensive shapes.
5) Transitional Chances
When possession is regained and the opposing team is caught out of shape, we encounter "transitional chances." These fast-break scenarios exploit numerical superiority before the opposition can reset defensively. The effectiveness of such chances is heavily influenced by decision-making at the regain point and the timing of attacking runs. They are among the most valuable indicators of successful offensive transitions.
6) Cut-Back Chances
In contrast to these reactive moments, "cut-back chances" are deliberate products of structured build-up play. In such situations, the ball is driven toward the byline and pulled back toward the penalty arc—targeting onrushing midfielders or second-line attackers. As defenders often face their own goal when tracking back, they struggle to react to these pullbacks, making them high-quality goal opportunities from inside-the-box play.
7) Cross-Based Chances
Another widely used mechanism is "cross-based chances." These stem from wing play and depend on both the quality and timing of the delivery. Execution varies: near-post runs, far-post arrivals, or late darts into the penalty spot. This type of chance tests both the crosser’s decision-making and the receiver’s spatial awareness. Success requires synchronized movement and timing.
8) Solo-Action Chances
Some opportunities are not born from collective structures but individual brilliance. "Solo-action chances" emerge from dribbles, one-on-one take-ons, or self-created shooting angles. These are not accidents, but products of high technical skill. Elite players often train specifically for these scenarios, reinforcing their ability to break lines and create danger independently.
9) Third-Man Chances
Beyond individualism lies collective intelligence. "Third-man / lay-off chances" are crafted through layered passing patterns involving three players. Typically seen in positional play systems, the ball bypasses the first two receivers to reach a third—often outside the defensive block’s radar. These situations highlight the tactical sophistication of attacking units and their ability to dismantle defensive structures through pre-planned sequences.
10) Recycled Attack Chances
Finally, when an initial attack doesn’t result in a goal but the team retains possession and launches a renewed wave of pressure, we refer to this as a "recycled attack chance." These arise when dominant possession sides regain loose balls after a cross, shot, or clearance and immediately reinitiate the offensive. The quality of these opportunities reflects a team's attacking persistence and mental capacity to reproduce pressure without losing control.
 
Creating chances in football is not merely the responsibility of attacking players; it is the outcome of collective team structure, game model, and on-field behavior. The ten distinct types of “chances” discussed in this piece each reflect how a team’s decision-making framework, timing coordination, and positional integrity come together to produce meaningful outcomes. Every chance type corresponds to a specific game phase and tactical context.
For coaches, these distinctions should inform not only post-match analysis but also direct on-pitch planning. Which types of chances does our system consistently generate? Do our player profiles align with the kinds of opportunities we’re creating? What types of chances is the opponent most vulnerable to? These are the kinds of questions that elevate the concept of “chance” from a mere data point to a cornerstone of strategic football planning.
Ultimately, chance creation is not an outcome—it is a strategy. It is the sum of well-structured attacking mechanisms, precisely timed individual actions, and disciplined, repeatable patterns. The more frequently and effectively you create chances, the more control you assert over the game—regardless of the scoreline. Because in football, more often than not, the team that’s prepared when the moment arrives is the team that wins.